On Wednesday morning in the Port of Tarragona conference room, Apportt programmed a talk entitled “Are we facing a change of cycle?”. It was given by Dr Antonio Terceño, Dean of the Faculty of Economy and Business at the Rovira i Virgili University and member of the Royal Academy of Economic and Financial Sciences (Racef).
The talk was organised by the Tarragona Port Promotion Group (Apportt) as a part of a networking conference open to both the group’s members and the general public.
Some fifty people attended the conference in which different explanations and theories were put forward on the change in paradigm to which we are all subjected and that, at the same time, represents an opportunity for social change and human development.
In his introduction, the president of the Port, Josep M. Cruset expressed his gratitude to Carlos Arola, president of Apportt, for his initiative in organising this talk, before he introduced the speaker, Antonio Terceño.
Mr Terceño touched on various themes, including his explanation for understanding how the expansive cycles of the crisis don’t die of old age, but from shock. He also explained the detonators of the finalisation of a crisis, which he summarised as 25% corresponding to the financial cycle factor and/or the excesses of overvaluation; 25% from the ‘shock’ of the offer; and finally, 50% impacting directly on overheating and the errors in economic policy.
He continued his talk by speaking about the four peculiarities of the latest crisis: the first, the intervention of the central banks in purchasing debt, followed by the high rate of debt maintained and the risk that represents; the third, fixed interest rates with too many years of negative returns; and finally, political uncertainty.
Mr Terceño took a moment to focus on our country, explaining that Spain depends on internal demand and has a moderate growth calculated to be approximately 2.1% for 2019. He pointed out that that, although the deficit is shrinking, it must be reduced far more to avoid major imbalances.
From his entire talk, it was clear that the university dean wished to emphasise that the world economy is currently being led and boosted by the economies of the emerging countries, such as China, which grew by 15.4 % in 2017.